План или прогноз? Что должно быть инструментом менеджера?

Пнд, 05/17/2010 - 22:22 — admin

Любая книга по менеджменту рассказывает о том, что планирование это необходимый инструмент для управления любой организацией. Планированию посвящены целые главы, а иногда и целые книги. Но видят ли управленцы в планировании реальный инструмент для компании? Или это ещё один формальный документ, роль которого ограничена фиксацией показателей и поводом для очередной мотивации персонала «кнутом»?

Для начала вернёмся к практике. А что собственно, в большинстве компаний, понимают под планированием? Вопрос не праздный. Автор статьи, на одном из ресурсов задал такой вопрос «Зачем нужен план продаж?». Ответы поразили даже участников ресурса. Оказалось, что планирование в их торговых компаниях действительно является ограниченным инструментом для менеджера и, по большому счёту, простой формальностью.

Изучение ответов на данном ресурсе и практическая деятельность привели к пониманию того, что большинство менеджеров не отличают планирование от прогнозирования. Один из моих знакомых рассказал вполне известный метод планирования: «Беру фактические показатели прошлого года, добавляю 25 % и получаю плановые цифры на этот год». А почему 25 %? Потому что это реально. Вот такой ответ. Можно, конечно, смеяться, но так планируют очень многие. Доводят эти планы до подчинённых и требуют их выполнения. От выполнения этих планов, планируют и другие виды деятельности, например закупку товаров или сырья, фонд оплаты труда, оплаты и т.д.

Такой процесс можно назвать планированием? Наверное, нет. Скорее гаданием или, в лучшем случае, прогнозированием. Многие мне скажут «А если провести серьёзный анализ?». Если вам доступны недешёвые услуги специализированных аналитических центров, то можете попробовать. Будет переработана масса показателей, цифр, построены модели и рассмотрены все возможные ситуации, оценены риски. В итоге вы получите информацию вроде: «рынок вырастет на 10 %, учитывая вашу долю на рынке и отсутствие вероятности появления новых конкурентов, вы можете ожидать 24 % роста продаж». Это будет плановой цифрой? Это всё равно будет прогнозом.

Именно так метеорологи предсказывают нам прогноз погоды. Они берут различные показатели текущей ситуации, положение атмосферных фронтов относительно местности, показатели прошлых лет и т.д. О том, как часто ошибаются метеорологи сложено немало анекдотов. То же самое касается и разного рода аналитиков, нисколько не умаляя их достоинств и профессионализма.

Прогноз во многом напоминает известную поговорку о дележе шкуры неубитого медведя. Вы исходите из того, что медведь будет убит, и ожидаете свои дивиденды от шкуры. В это время, ваш персонал, иногда и вся компания, далеки от убийства медведя. И вообще, все заняты его активным поиском, так как в предполагаемом месте косолапого не обнаружено.

То есть вы занимаете пассивную позицию выжидания, что ситуация на рынке сложиться именно так, как вы предполагали. А часто ли ситуация складывается именно так? И какая вероятность того, что ситуация будет вполне соответствовать вашему сценарию лет через пять или даже завтра?

Именно поэтому многие отечественные бизнесмены, менеджеры отвергают долгосрочное и стратегическое планирование, часто понимая под этим как раз прогнозирование, то есть построение некой модели и ожидание воплощения этой модели в жизнь. Безусловно, это повод отвергнуть прогнозирование, но никак не планирование, тем более, стратегическое планирование.

Работа без плана ничем не лучше работы, основанной на прогнозе. Обычно отсутствие планов приводит к достаточно рискованной игре, в которую играют, обычно, небольшие компании и индивидуальные предприниматели. Печальная статистика банкротств и переходов в иные сферы деятельности тому подтверждение. А если у компании достаточно большие активы, десятки или сотни людей наёмного персонала, во всё вложены немалые деньги, нервы и бессонные ночи собственника?

В отличие от прогнозирования планирование является активным инструментом ведения бизнеса, даже агрессивным, независимо от положения компании на рынке. И эта активность не ограничивается соответствующими действиями по отношению к нерадивому персоналу.

Когда-то автор статьи высказал крамольную мысль, что план продаж в торговле необходимо строить от плана закупок. И в ответ получил, мягко выражаясь, недоумение.

Но если разобраться по сути, ничего сверхъестественного предложено не было. Так как в данном случае принятая модель планирования продаж «стояла на голове». Традиционное прогнозирование, на практике, часто приводит к ситуациям затоваривания складов, или дефициту товара, выпадению его из ассортимента.

Очевидно, что прогнозирование не лучший помощник менеджера. А о том, как планировать, в следующих статьях.

Александр Грамм, Мой бизнес

Менеджмент

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